The Runnymede team is full of gratitude and sends its thanks to all clients, friends, and colleagues this Thanksgiving day. Whether you are home or traveling far, please know that you are dear to our hearts.
- AAA predicts the worst Thanksgiving traffic since 2007, with 48.7 million Americans traveling 50 miles or more, a 1.9% increase from last year.
- According to the National Retail Federation, 2016 holiday sales have the potential to increase by 3.6% and shoppers plan to spend approximately $656 billion.
- The United States Department of Agriculture estimates that 46 million turkeys or $670 million worth of turkeys will be consumed.
Economic Data Watch
Will you brave the crowds this Black Friday? Many investors will be watching holiday retail sales data for a read of consumer sentiment.
In the meantime, let's take a look at the Coincident Economic Activity Index, a broad-based measurement of current economic conditions widely used by investors to judge the economy's current position in the business cycle. The index includes four indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing and wages and salaries.
The economy looks to be okay for now judging by the Index of Coincident Indicators. You may also observe a correlation between the Coincident Economic Activity Index and stock prices (the Wilshire 5000 is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the market value of all stocks actively traded in the United States.) Indeed, the bull market is long in duration, but there is no significant signs of change yet.
We wish you a happy and safe Thanksgiving and hope that you'll find time for reflection, gratitude and generosity. Thank you for reading our blog and for our clients who work with us.
What are your favorite Thanksgiving traditions? What are your thoughts about the economy?