April has been a turbulent month for financial markets, as new tariffs caught many investors—and more importantly, businesses—off guard. While negotiations continue with major trading partners, it’s becoming increasingly clear that tariffs are not going away anytime soon. In fact, they are likely to remain at 10% or higher for the foreseeable future.

With this shift in policy, the broader economic landscape is deteriorating, and the risk of recession is on the rise. At minimum, the U.S. appears to be headed toward slower growth.

A key warning sign comes from the Challenger job cuts report, which shows layoffs reaching levels comparable to past downturns—including the dot-com bust (2000–2003), the financial crisis (2008–2009), and the COVID-19 lockdowns (2020). So far, job losses have largely been concentrated in the government sector, with the Department of Government Employment (DOGE) accounting for 216,670 of the 275,240 layoffs announced in March.

DOGE has gone notably quiet in recent weeks, suggesting it may have run out of room to cut further.
The concern now is private-sector layoffs may follow, particularly as tariffs introduce new layers of uncertainty into corporate planning. In Q1, the retail sector led in layoffs, with a 370% year-over-year increase, while automakers saw a 28% uptick.

Since reciprocal tariffs were announced, several high-profile companies—including Cleveland-Cliffs, Stellantis, Mack Trucks, and Volvo—have initiated downsizing efforts.

At the same time, hiring plans have cooled significantly. U.S. companies announced just 13,198 new job openings in March, with total Q1 hiring plans reaching only 53,867—the lowest level since 2012, according to Challenger.

As tariffs become a more permanent fixture in global trade, businesses are recalibrating—but not in ways that support strong economic momentum. With job cuts rising and hiring intentions sinking to decade-lows, the warning signs are clear: The U.S. economy is entering a more fragile phase. The window to prevent a deeper downturn is narrowing.

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