Employment is a late cycle indicator of an economic slowdown. This cycle is no different as jobless claims are still falling by over 200k in the latest reading.

If you look back to 2000 and 2008, claims turned to positive inflection and then climbed to over 200k in the depths of those recessions.

While the job market is still healthy, there are clear signs of layoffs coming in short order. Here are just a few recent announcements.

Finally there is JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon who is warning of an “economic hurricane” – sounds like he may be listening to Runnymede's investor call as we made the financial hurricane call back in April.


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