For years, Tom Lee has been known as Wall Street's eternal bull. His S&P targets were virtually always the most bullish on the street. When I reviewed what other strategists were predicting this year and Tom Lee hadn't released his numbers, I just assumed he would be the most bullish on the street, again. Perhaps we should check to see if Tom Lee has been abducted by aliens and replaced by a clone because Tom Lee is the most bearish strategist on the street with a S&P target of just 2275.
Furthermore, he has a first half target of 2150 or down 7% from current levels. Lee believes that the year will begin with policy confusion amid a flattening yield curve in long-term bonds. This could cause a 5-7% drop in the stock market.
In his report to clients, Lee expressed worries that Trump's presidential term could see “a sloppy White House organization (that) creates confusion on US policy, particularly as tweets become policy.” He thinks much-anticipated fiscal stimulus may not become reality, and even insinuated that Trump will “fire” Fed Chair Yellen as he proposed during his presidential campaign.
Despite his bearish view on the market, Lee believes the year will see solid economic gains and above-consensus earnings growth of 11%. The Runnymede investment team shares this part of his view as we have been bullish on earnings since mid-summer and see continued momentum throughout 2017.
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