Look at where multiples and rates were in 1999. I’m not saying stocks are screaming cheap, but you’re nowhere near an overheated market. Any comparisons to past overheated markets are ridiculous.
Back in 2000, the S&P 500 index boasted a price-to-earnings ratio, a popular measure of equity value, at 30.12 times, compared with 18.79 times for the S&P 500 now. By this simple measure, it shows that the current environment is nowhere near a bubble.
Here are my comments from our quarterly conference call for clients held in July.
We do not feel that this is close to a bubble environment. We find that market psychology isn’t euphoric and doesn’t feel like a bubble at all. This isn’t 2000 or 2008. You don’t hear about taxi drivers trading stocks or your friends flipping houses like in previous cycles. If we start to hear those stories, then we will start getting nervous.
We continue to see upside in current markets with solid economic data and still extremely low interest rates.
Are you bullish heading into the last few months of the year? Are you nervous?
“Apple-Orange Hybrid” by rgirardin is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0
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